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Abstract Projected increases in hurricane intensity under a warming climate will have profound effects on many forest ecosystems. One key challenge is to disentangle the effects of wind damage from the myriad factors that influence forest structure and species distributions over large spatial scales. Here, we employ a novel machine learning framework with high‐resolution aerial photos, and LiDAR collected over 115 km²of El Yunque National Forest in Puerto Rico to examine the effects of topographic exposure to two hurricanes, Hugo (1989) and Georges (1998), and several landscape‐scale environmental factors on the current forest height and abundance of a dominant, wind‐resistant species, the palmPrestoea acuminata var. montana. Model predictions show that the average density of the palm was 32% greater while the canopy height was 20% shorter in forests exposed to the two storms relative to unexposed areas. Our results demonstrate that hurricanes have lasting effects on forest canopy height and composition, suggesting the expected increase in hurricane severity with a warming climate will alter coastal forests in the North Atlantic. 

Abstract Droughts are predicted to become more frequent and intense in many tropical regions, which may cause shifts in plant community composition. Especially in diverse tropical communities, understanding how traits mediate demographic responses to drought can help provide insight into the effects of climate change on these ecosystems. To understand tropical tree responses to reduced soil moisture, we grew seedlings of eight species across an experimental soil moisture gradient at the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. We quantified survival and growth over an 8‐month period and characterized demographic responses in terms of tolerance to low soil moisture—defined as survival and growth rates under low soil moisture conditions—and sensitivity to variation in soil moisture—defined as more pronounced changes in demographic rates across the observed range of soil moisture. We then compared demographic responses with interspecific variation in a suite of 11 (root, stem, and leaf) functional traits, measured on individuals that survived the experiment. Lower soil moisture was associated with reduced survival and growth but traits mediated species‐specific responses. Species with relatively conservative traits (e.g., high leaf mass per area), had higher survival at low soil moisture whereas species with more extensive root systems were more sensitive to soil moisture, in that they exhibited more pronounced changes in growth across the experimental soil moisture gradient. Our results suggest that increasing drought will favor species with more conservative traits that confer greater survival in low soil moisture conditions. 

ABSTRACT Mast seeding, the synchronous and highly variable production of seed crops by perennial plants, is a population‐level phenomenon and has cascading effects in ecosystems. Mast seeding studies are typically conducted at the population/species level. Much less is known about synchrony in mast seeding between species because the necessary long‐term data are rarely available. To investigate synchrony between species within communities, we used long‐term data from seven forest communities in the U.S. Long‐Term Ecological Research (LTER) network, ranging from tropical rainforest to boreal forest. We focus on cross‐species synchrony and (i) quantify synchrony in reproduction overall and within LTER sites, (ii) test for relationships between synchrony with trait and phylogenetic similarity and (iii) investigate how climate conditions at sites are related to levels of synchrony. Overall, reproductive synchrony between woody plant species was greater than expected by chance, but spanned a wide range of values between species. Based on 11 functional and reproductive traits for 103 species (plus phylogenetic relatedness), cross‐species synchrony in reproduction was driven primarily by trait similarity with phylogeny being largely unimportant, and synchrony was higher in sites with greater climatic water deficit. Community‐level synchrony in masting has consequences for understanding forest regeneration dynamics and consumer‐resource interactions. 

Abstract Studies of spatial point patterns (SPPs) are often used to examine the role that density‐dependence (DD) and environmental filtering (EF) play in community assembly and species coexistence in forest communities. However, SPP analyses often struggle to distinguish the opposing effects that DD and EF may have on the distribution of tree species.We tested percolation threshold analysis on simulated tree communities as a method to distinguish the importance of thinning from DD EF on SPPs. We then compared the performance of percolation threshold analysis results and a Gibbs point process model in detecting environmental associations as well as clustering patterns or overdispersion. Finally, we applied percolation threshold analysis and the Gibbs point process model to observed SPPs of 12 dominant tree species in a Puerto Rican forest to detect evidence of DD and EF.Percolation threshold analysis using simulated SPPs detected a decrease in clustering due to DD and an increase in clustering from EF. In contrast, the Gibbs point process model clearly detected the effects of EF but only identified DD thinning in two of the four types of simulated SPPs. Percolation threshold analysis on the 12 observed tree species' SPPs found that the SPPs for two species were consistent with thinning from DD processes only, four species had SPPs consistent with EF only and SPP for five reflected a combination of both processes. Gibbs models of observed SPPs of living trees detected significant environmental associations for 11 species and clustering consistent with DD processes for seven species.Percolation threshold analysis is a robust method for detecting community assembly processes in simulated SPPs. By applying percolation threshold analysis to natural communities, we found that tree SPPs were consistent with thinning from both DD and EF. Percolation threshold analysis was better suited to detect DD thinning than Gibbs models for clustered simulated communities. Percolation threshold analysis improves our understanding of forest community assembly processes by quantifying the relative importance of DD and EF in forest communities. 

Abstract Plants display a range of temporal patterns of inter‐annual reproduction, from relatively constant seed production to “mast seeding,” the synchronized and highly variable interannual seed production of plants within a population. Previous efforts have compiled global records of seed production in long‐lived plants to gain insight into seed production, forest and animal population dynamics, and the effects of global change on masting. Existing datasets focus on seed production dynamics at the population scale but are limited in their ability to examine community‐level mast seeding dynamics across different plant species at the continental scale. We harmonized decades of plant reproduction data for 141 woody plant species across nine Long‐Term Ecological Research (LTER) or long‐term ecological monitoring sites from a wide range of habitats across the United States. Plant reproduction data are reported annually between 1957 and 2021 and based on either seed traps or seed and/or cone counts on individual trees. A wide range of woody plant species including trees, shrubs, and lianas are represented within sites allowing for direct community‐level comparisons among species. We share code for filtering of data that enables the comparison of plot and individual tree data across sites. For each species, we compiled relevant life history attributes (e.g., seed mass, dispersal syndrome, seed longevity, sexual system) that may serve as important predictors of mast seeding in future analyses. To aid in phylogenetically informed analyses, we also share a phylogeny and phylogenetic distance matrix for all species in the dataset. These data can be used to investigate continent‐scale ecological properties of seed production, including individual and population variability, synchrony within and across species, and how these properties of seed production vary in relation to plant species traits and environmental conditions. In addition, these data can be used to assess how annual variability in seed production is associated with climate conditions and how that varies across populations, species, and regions. The dataset is released under a CC0 1.0 Universal public domain license. 

Abstract Topography affects abiotic conditions which can influence the structure, function and dynamics of ecological communities. An increasing number of studies have demonstrated biological consequences of fine‐scale topographic heterogeneity but we have a limited understanding of how these effects depend on the climate context.We merged high‐resolution (1 m²) data on topography and canopy height derived from airborne lidar with ground‐based data from 15 forest plots in Puerto Rico distributed along a precipitation gradient spanningc. 800–3,500 mm/year. Ground‐based data included species composition, estimated above‐ground biomass (AGB), and two key functional traits (wood density and leaf mass per area, LMA) that reflect resource‐use strategies and a trade‐off between hydraulic safety and hydraulic efficiency. We used hierarchical Bayesian models to evaluate how the interaction between topography × climate is related to metrics of forest structure (i.e. canopy height and AGB), as well as taxonomic and functional alpha‐ and beta‐diversity.Fine‐scale topography (characterized with the topographic wetness index, TWI) significantly affected forest structure and the strength (and in some cases direction) of these effects varied across the precipitation gradient. In all plots, canopy height increased with topographic wetness but the effect was much stronger in dry compared to wet forest plots. In dry forest plots, topographically wetter microsites also had higher levels of AGB but in wet forest plots, topographically drier microsites had higher AGB.Fine‐scale topography influenced functional composition but had only weak or non‐significant effects on taxonomic and functional alpha‐ and beta‐diversity. For instance, community‐weighted wood density followed a similar pattern to AGB across plots. We also found a marginally significant association between variation of wood density and topographic heterogeneity that depended on climate context.Synthesis. The effects of fine‐scale topographic heterogeneity on tropical forest structure and composition depend on the climate context. Our study demonstrates how a stronger integration of topographic heterogeneity across precipitation gradients could improve estimates of forest structure and biomass, and may provide insight to the ways that topography might mediate species responses to drought and climate change.